Betz, Gregor (2009) VARIETIES OF POSSIBILITY: HOW ITERATED MODALITIES SOLVE A METHODOLOGICAL DILEMMA OF SIMULATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY. In: [2009] Models and Simulations 3 (Charlottesville, Virginia; March 5-7, 2009).

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Abstract

This paper sketched a conceptual framework for expressing uncertain, possibilistic knowledge. A framework which allows to express our foreknow-ledge in a more nuanced way than simply by labelling some statements about the future as possible. I suggested that we should adopt this framework for stat-ing and communicating scientific results in the epistemic mode of uncertainty. This avoids the methodological dilemma between modal inductivism and mo-dal falsificationism. The framework's conceptual variety of possibilities trig-gers a methodological variety, a plurality of modal methods. Some of these rely on traditional virtues of scientific reasoning, others don't. In some disci-plines, computer simulations might, surprisingly, be most profitably applied in and contribute to the creative methods, rather than the strict and formal ones.

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