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VARIETIES OF POSSIBILITY: HOW ITERATED MODALITIES SOLVE A METHODOLOGICAL DILEMMA OF SIMULATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Betz, Gregor (2009) VARIETIES OF POSSIBILITY: HOW ITERATED MODALITIES SOLVE A METHODOLOGICAL DILEMMA OF SIMULATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY. In: [2009] Models and Simulations 3 (Charlottesville, Virginia; March 5-7, 2009).

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    Abstract

    This paper sketched a conceptual framework for expressing uncertain, possibilistic knowledge. A framework which allows to express our foreknow-ledge in a more nuanced way than simply by labelling some statements about the future as possible. I suggested that we should adopt this framework for stat-ing and communicating scientific results in the epistemic mode of uncertainty. This avoids the methodological dilemma between modal inductivism and mo-dal falsificationism. The framework's conceptual variety of possibilities trig-gers a methodological variety, a plurality of modal methods. Some of these rely on traditional virtues of scientific reasoning, others don't. In some disci-plines, computer simulations might, surprisingly, be most profitably applied in and contribute to the creative methods, rather than the strict and formal ones.


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    Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
    Keywords: simulation, climate change, prediction, limits of science, possibility, scenario
    Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
    General Issues > Models and Idealization
    Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences
    General Issues > Values In Science
    Conferences and Volumes: [2009] Models and Simulations 3 (Charlottesville, Virginia; March 5-7, 2009)
    Depositing User: Gregor Betz
    Date Deposited: 05 Mar 2009
    Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 11:17
    Item ID: 4490
    URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/4490

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