Betz, Gregor (2009) VARIETIES OF POSSIBILITY: HOW ITERATED MODALITIES SOLVE A METHODOLOGICAL DILEMMA OF SIMULATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY. In:  Models and Simulations 3 (Charlottesville, Virginia; March 5-7, 2009).
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This paper sketched a conceptual framework for expressing uncertain, possibilistic knowledge. A framework which allows to express our foreknow-ledge in a more nuanced way than simply by labelling some statements about the future as possible. I suggested that we should adopt this framework for stat-ing and communicating scientific results in the epistemic mode of uncertainty. This avoids the methodological dilemma between modal inductivism and mo-dal falsificationism. The framework's conceptual variety of possibilities trig-gers a methodological variety, a plurality of modal methods. Some of these rely on traditional virtues of scientific reasoning, others don't. In some disci-plines, computer simulations might, surprisingly, be most profitably applied in and contribute to the creative methods, rather than the strict and formal ones.
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|Item Type:||Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)|
|Keywords:||simulation, climate change, prediction, limits of science, possibility, scenario|
|Subjects:||General Issues > Decision Theory|
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences
General Issues > Values In Science
|Conferences and Volumes:|| Models and Simulations 3 (Charlottesville, Virginia; March 5-7, 2009)|
|Depositing User:||Gregor Betz|
|Date Deposited:||05 Mar 2009|
|Last Modified:||07 Oct 2010 11:17|
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