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VARIETIES OF POSSIBILITY: HOW ITERATED MODALITIES SOLVE A METHODOLOGICAL DILEMMA OF SIMULATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Betz, Gregor (2009) VARIETIES OF POSSIBILITY: HOW ITERATED MODALITIES SOLVE A METHODOLOGICAL DILEMMA OF SIMULATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY. In: UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

This paper sketched a conceptual framework for expressing uncertain, possibilistic knowledge. A framework which allows to express our foreknow-ledge in a more nuanced way than simply by labelling some statements about the future as possible. I suggested that we should adopt this framework for stat-ing and communicating scientific results in the epistemic mode of uncertainty. This avoids the methodological dilemma between modal inductivism and mo-dal falsificationism. The framework's conceptual variety of possibilities trig-gers a methodological variety, a plurality of modal methods. Some of these rely on traditional virtues of scientific reasoning, others don't. In some disci-plines, computer simulations might, surprisingly, be most profitably applied in and contribute to the creative methods, rather than the strict and formal ones.


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Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Betz, Gregor
Keywords: simulation, climate change, prediction, limits of science, possibility, scenario
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences
General Issues > Values In Science
Depositing User: Gregor Betz
Date Deposited: 05 Mar 2009
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:17
Item ID: 4490
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/4490

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