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Rational credences are private

McCutcheon, Randall G. (2014) Rational credences are private. [Preprint]


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Anti-expertise, or self-defeating belief, leads to incoherent personal credences. Some philosophers think that anti-expertise is irrational but avoidable (probabilism), others think that some cases of anti-expertise are rational (anti-probabilism), and still others think that anti-expertise is irrational and unavoidable (nihilism about rationality). Taking as premises some standard assumptions about the Sleeping Beauty Problem, I prove that if Beauty maintains public credences then she is prone to anti-expertise unless she embraces optimism, i.e. denies that she will experience multiple awakenings if tails.

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Item Type: Preprint
McCutcheon, Randall G.
Keywords: Anti-expertise, incoherent credences, probabilism, Sleeping Beauty, optimism, Newcomb paradox
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Depositing User: Dr. Randall G. McCutcheon
Date Deposited: 08 Dec 2014 02:01
Last Modified: 08 Dec 2014 02:01
Item ID: 11184
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Date: 3 December 2014

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