Franceschi, Paul (2003) A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. [Preprint]

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Abstract

In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt et al. analysis. The present line of thought is based on the fact that both aforementioned analyses are based on an inaccurate analogy. After discussing the imperfections of both models, I present then a two-sided model that fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA and encapsulates both Carter-Leslie's and Eckhardt et al.'s models. I argue then that this new analogy also holds when one takes into account the issue of indeterminism and the reference class problem. This leads finally to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Franceschi, Paul
Additional Information:	important update
Keywords:	Doomsday argument, indeterminism, two-urn case
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
Depositing User:	Paul Franceschi
Date Deposited:	24 May 2003
Last Modified:	07 Oct 2010 15:11
Item ID:	1187
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
Date:	May 2003
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/1187

Available Versions of this Item

• A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. (deposited 24 May 2003) [Currently Displayed]
  • A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. (deposited 26 Feb 2004)
    • A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. (deposited 02 Sep 2004)

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