Burock, Marc (2019) Temporal Logic and Selection in the Sleeping Beauty Problem. [Preprint]

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Abstract

The Sleeping Beauty Problem is a polarizing thought experiment involving a fair coin toss, memory erasure and temporal uncertainty. Despite its simplicity there is no agreed upon solution. In this work I put forward a set of arguments that support the so-called Halfer or 1/2 solution to the problem, while undermining the competing Thirder or 1/3 solution. In analyzing Elga’s original argument for the 1/3 solution, I bring to light a subtle but clear contradiction in his reasoning using temporal logic. Temporal reasoning also helps to neutralize the main criticisms against the 1/2 solution. Surprisingly, for some questions of probability or credence, it appears we need to distinguish between an event that has yet to occur, and the same event after it has already occurred. Knowledge that an event has been decided (without knowing the result) can be a type of admissible evidence when updating credences.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Burock, Marc circumstanial@hotmail.com
Keywords:	Sleeping Beauty, Probability, Decision theory
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Epistemology General Issues > Decision Theory Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Marc Burock
Date Deposited:	15 Apr 2019 18:11
Last Modified:	15 Apr 2019 18:11
Item ID:	15911
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Epistemology General Issues > Decision Theory Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	14 April 2019
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/15911

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