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The Chances of Propensities

Suárez, Mauricio (2016) The Chances of Propensities. [Preprint]

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This paper argues that if propensities are displayed in objective physical chances then the appropriate representation of these chances is as indexed probability functions. Two alternative formal models, or accounts, for the relation between propensity properties and their chancy or probabilistic manifestations, in terms of conditionals and conditional probability are first reviewed. It is argued that both confront important objections, which are overcome by the account in terms of indexed probabilities. A number of further advantages of the indexed probability account are discussed, which suggest that it is promising as a general theory of objective physical chance. The paper ends with a discussion of the indexical character of the objective chances that are grounded in propensities.

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Item Type: Preprint
Additional Information: Published in the British Journal for Philosophy of Science, 2017
Keywords: Philosophy of Probability, Metaphysics of Chance, Propensities, Frequencies, Humphreys' Paradox
Subjects: General Issues > Scientific Metaphysics
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Prof Mauricio Suárez
Date Deposited: 02 Dec 2021 05:31
Last Modified: 02 Dec 2021 05:31
Item ID: 19956
Official URL:
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.1093/bjps/axx010
Subjects: General Issues > Scientific Metaphysics
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 2016

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