Wagner, Carl
(2021)
Postscript to Richard Jeffrey's "Conditioning, Kinematics, and Exchangeability".
[Preprint]
Abstract
Richard Jeffrey’s Conditioning, Kinematics, and Exchangeability is one of the foundational documents of probability kinematics. However, the section entitled Successive Updating contains a subtle error involving updating by so-called relevance quotients in order to ensure the commutativity of successive probability kinematical revisions. Upon becoming aware of this error Jeffrey formulated the appropriate remedy, but never discussed the issue in print. To head off any confusion, it seems worthwhile to alert readers of Jeffrey’s paper to the aforementioned error, and to document his remedy, placing it in the context of both earlier and subsequent work on commuting probability kinematical revisions.
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