Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Machete, Reason and Smith, Leonard A. (2013) Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection Is a Poison Pill.

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Abstract

Mathematical models have gained prominence among the scientific methods used to generate forecasts. This raises the question of exactly what these models deliver: can these models provide the results as advertised? The aim of this paper is to urge some caution. We argue that if there is only the slightest model imperfection, then treating model outputs as decision relevant probabilistic forecasts can be misleading.

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Item Type:	Published Article or Volume
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Frigg, Roman r.p.frigg@lse.ac.uk Bradley, Seamus Seamus.Bradley@lrz.uni-muenchen.de Machete, Reason Smith, Leonard A. lenny@maths.ox.ac.uk
Keywords:	mathematical models, structural model error, UKCP
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Physics > Classical Physics General Issues > Models and Idealization
Depositing User:	Roman Frigg
Date Deposited:	19 Jul 2022 13:01
Last Modified:	19 Jul 2022 13:01
Item ID:	20935
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Physics > Classical Physics General Issues > Models and Idealization
Date:	2013
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/20935

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