Roussos, Joe and Bradley, Richard and Frigg, Roman (2022) Environmental Decision-Making under Uncertainty. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Extreme weather events like hurricanes occur rarely, but when they occur, they cause immense damage. How should decision-makers, both public and private, make decisions about such events? Such decisions face significant and often poorly understood uncertainty. We rework the so-called “confidence approach” to tackle decision-making under severe uncertainty with multiple models, and we illustrate the approach with the case study of insurance pricing using hurricane models. The confidence approach has important consequences for this case and offers a powerful framework for a wide class of problems.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Roussos, Joe joe.roussos@iffs.se 0000-0002-7663-8057 Bradley, Richard R.Bradley@lse.ac.uk Frigg, Roman r.p.frigg@lse.ac.uk
Keywords:	Uncertainty, Confidence, Insurance Pricing, Averaging, Catastrophe Model, Hurricane Model, Extreme Weather Event, Climate Change
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology General Issues > Decision Theory General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Models and Idealization
Depositing User:	Roman Frigg
Date Deposited:	19 Jul 2022 13:02
Last Modified:	19 Jul 2022 13:02
Item ID:	20939
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology General Issues > Decision Theory General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Models and Idealization
Date:	2022
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/20939

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