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How to Interpret Covid-19 Predictions: Reassessing the IHME’s Model

Schroeder, S. Andrew (2021) How to Interpret Covid-19 Predictions: Reassessing the IHME’s Model. Philosophy of Medicine, 2 (1). pp. 1-7. ISSN 2692-3963

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The IHME Covid-19 prediction model has been one of the most influential Covid models in the United States. Early on, it received heavy criticism for understating the extent of the epidemic. I argue that this criticism was based on a misunderstanding of the model. The model was best interpreted not as attempting to forecast the actual course of the epidemic. Rather, it was attempting to make a conditional projection: telling us how the epidemic would unfold, given certain assumptions. This misunderstanding of the IHME’s model prevented the public from seeing how dire the model’s projections actually were.

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Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Schroeder, S. Andrewaschroeder@cmc.edu0000-0001-7305-3283
Keywords: modeling philosophy of science epidemiology Covid-19 forecasting
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology
Depositing User: Professor Alex Broadbent
Date Deposited: 29 Aug 2022 14:18
Last Modified: 29 Aug 2022 14:18
Item ID: 21106
Journal or Publication Title: Philosophy of Medicine
Publisher: University Library System, University of Pittsburgh
Official URL:
DOI or Unique Handle: 10.5195/pom.2021.43
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology
Date: 19 March 2021
Page Range: pp. 1-7
Volume: 2
Number: 1
ISSN: 2692-3963

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