Schroeder, S. Andrew (2021) How to Interpret Covid-19 Predictions: Reassessing the IHME’s Model. Philosophy of Medicine, 2 (1). pp. 1-7. ISSN 2692-3963

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Abstract

The IHME Covid-19 prediction model has been one of the most influential Covid models in the United States. Early on, it received heavy criticism for understating the extent of the epidemic. I argue that this criticism was based on a misunderstanding of the model. The model was best interpreted not as attempting to forecast the actual course of the epidemic. Rather, it was attempting to make a conditional projection: telling us how the epidemic would unfold, given certain assumptions. This misunderstanding of the IHME’s model prevented the public from seeing how dire the model’s projections actually were.

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Item Type:	Published Article or Volume
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Schroeder, S. Andrew aschroeder@cmc.edu 0000-0001-7305-3283
Keywords:	modeling philosophy of science epidemiology Covid-19 forecasting
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology
Depositing User:	Professor Alex Broadbent
Date Deposited:	29 Aug 2022 14:18
Last Modified:	29 Aug 2022 14:18
Item ID:	21106
Journal or Publication Title:	Philosophy of Medicine
Publisher:	University Library System, University of Pittsburgh
Official URL:	https://philmed.pitt.edu/philmed/article/view/43
DOI or Unique Handle:	10.5195/pom.2021.43
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology
Date:	19 March 2021
Page Range:	pp. 1-7
Volume:	2
Number:	1
ISSN:	2692-3963
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/21106

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