Schindler, Samuel (2024) Predictivism and avoidance of ad hoc-ness: an empirical study. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 104. pp. 68-77. ISSN 00393681
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Abstract
Predictivism is the thesis that evidence successfully predicted by a scientific theory counts more (or ought to count more) in the confirmation of that theory than already known evidence would. One rationale that has been proposed for predictivism is that predictive success guards against ad hoc hypotheses. Despite the intuitive attraction of predictivism, there is historical evidence that speaks against it. As valuable as the historical evidence is, however, it is largely indirect evidence for the epistemic attitudes of individual – albeit prominent – scientists. This paper presents the results of an empirical study of scientists’ attitudes toward predictivism and ad hoc-ness (n=492), which will put the debate on a more robust empirical footing. The paper also draws attention to a tension between the ad hoc-ness avoidance rationale of predictivism and the ways philosophers have spelled out the notion of ad hoc-ness.
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| Item Type: | Published Article or Volume | ||||||
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| Keywords: | predictivism; prediction; accommodation; ad hoc hypothesis; confirmation; empirical study | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Theory Change General Issues > Theory/Observation |
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| Depositing User: | Samuel Schindler | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 14 Jun 2024 16:49 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 14 Jun 2024 16:49 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 23562 | ||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Studies in History and Philosophy of Science | ||||||
| Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||
| Official URL: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2023.11.008 | ||||||
| DOI or Unique Handle: | 10.1016/j.shpsa.2023.11.008 | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Theory Change General Issues > Theory/Observation |
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| Date: | April 2024 | ||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 68-77 | ||||||
| Volume: | 104 | ||||||
| ISSN: | 00393681 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/23562 |
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