Neth, Sven (2025) Random Emeralds. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Suppose we observe many emeralds which are all green. This observation usually provides good evidence that all emeralds are green. However, the emeralds we have observed are also all grue, which means that they are either green and already observed or blue and not yet observed. We usually do not think that our observation provides good evidence that all emeralds are grue. Why? I argue that if we are in the best case for inductive reasoning, we have reason to assign low probability to the hypothesis that all emeralds are grue before seeing any evidence. My argument appeals to random sampling and the observation-independence of green, understood as probabilistic independence of whether emeralds are green and when they are observed.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Neth, Sven sven.neth@pitt.edu 0000-0003-4275-7581
Additional Information:	Forthcoming in Philosophical Quarterly.
Keywords:	Grue, New Riddle of Induction, Bayesian Epistemology
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Sven Neth
Date Deposited:	11 Mar 2025 13:17
Last Modified:	11 Mar 2025 13:17
Item ID:	24896
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	2025
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/24896

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