Schock, A.J. (2025) Inevitable Actualization: Beyond Necessity and Contingency. [Preprint]

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Abstract

I introduce Inevitable Actualization (IA), an ontological modality: if first, the universe’s future time involves an unbounded sequence of causal trials (H_infinity) and second, a state S has a non-zero physical probability P_n greater than 0 in trial n such that the sum of P_n from n equals 1 to infinity diverges, then S is guaranteed to occur with probability one. IA is developed through a rigorous measure-theoretic foundation, probabilistic modeling with dependence (under standard mixing conditions) and absorbing-state exceptions, contrasting IA with classical modalities and modern multiverse theories. Positioned as a distinct third category alongside necessity and contingency, IA's unique grounding rests on temporal structure and probability. I address objections (Boltzmann brains, the measure problem, and identity duplication) and illustrate IA’s implications for ethics, cosmology, and personal identity, acknowledging formal challenges.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Schock, A.J. schockaj@gmail.com 0009-0001-7359-2604
Keywords:	Inevitable Actualization, Modality, Ontological Modality, Temporal Modality, Probabilistic Modality, Necessity, Contingency, Probability Theory, Physical Probability, Borel-Cantelli Lemma, Measure Theory, Infinite Time, Cosmology, Metaphysics, Philosophy of Probability, Philosophy of Physics, Boltzmann Brains, Measure Problem, Personal Identity, Infinite Ethics, Mixing Conditions, Causal History
Subjects:	General Issues > Scientific Metaphysics General Issues > Causation Specific Sciences > Physics > Cosmology General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	A Schock
Date Deposited:	28 Apr 2025 12:03
Last Modified:	28 Apr 2025 12:03
Item ID:	25186
Subjects:	General Issues > Scientific Metaphysics General Issues > Causation Specific Sciences > Physics > Cosmology General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	26 April 2025
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/25186

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