Bobadilla, Hernán (2025) Beyond Factivity: Examining Storyline-Based Understanding in Detection and Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events. [Preprint]
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Abstract
Climate scientists working in the field of detection and attribution (D&A) have developed a “storyline” approach to the analysis of extreme weather and climate events. Despite its intended complementary role to traditional “risk-based” approaches, the storyline approach has been met with scepticism and a degree of reluctance, constraining the expression of its full potential. Philosophers of scientific understanding can help articulate the unique value of storyline-based understanding, framing it as a distinct but genuine form of scientific understanding. Conversely, philosophical debates on the nature of scientific understanding, especially concerning its relation to truth and facts, can be advanced by examining risk-based and storyline approaches in the field of D&A. This paper advances both endeavours and draws two main conclusions. First, both risk-based and storyline approaches typically resort to non-veridical representations, based on counterfactuals and idealizations. However, they do so in qualitatively different ways. As a result, these approaches yield functionally distinct states of scientific understanding. Second, storyline-based understanding qualifies as genuine under the evaluative criteria of both factivist and non factivist positions in the philosophy of scientific understanding. Building on this, the paper proposes an alternative “transfactive” approach, which further supports the genuineness of storyline-based understanding in contexts marked by deep uncertainty.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | ||||||
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| Keywords: | Storyline approach, scientific understanding, risk-based approach, detection and attribution, extreme weather and climate events, idealizations, counterfactuals | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology General Issues > Explanation General Issues > Models and Idealization |
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| Depositing User: | Dr. Hernan Bobadilla | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 28 Aug 2025 13:09 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 28 Aug 2025 13:09 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 26387 | ||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology General Issues > Explanation General Issues > Models and Idealization |
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| Date: | 27 August 2025 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/26387 |
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