Trpin, Borut and Justin, Martin (2025) Coherence as a Constraint on Scientific Inquiry. [Preprint]

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Abstract

We investigate the epistemic role of coherence in scientific reasoning, focusing on its use as a heuristic for filtering evidence. Using a novel computational model based on Bayesian networks, we simulate agents who update their beliefs under varying levels of noise and bias. Some agents treat reductions in coherence as higher-order evidence and interpret such drops as signals that something has gone epistemically awry, even when the source of error is unclear. Our results show that this strategy can improve belief accuracy in noisy environments but tends to mislead when evidence is systematically biased. We explore the implications for the rationality of coherence-based reasoning in science.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Trpin, Borut borut.trpin@lrz.uni-muenchen.de 0000-0002-1121-9388 Justin, Martin martin.justin1@um.si 0000-0002-2614-9423
Additional Information:	Forthcoming in Synthese
Keywords:	coherence, higher-order evidence, belief updating, Bayesian networks, scientific reasoning
Subjects:	General Issues > Computer Simulation General Issues > Evidence
Depositing User:	Dr. Borut Trpin
Date Deposited:	17 Sep 2025 11:12
Last Modified:	17 Sep 2025 11:12
Item ID:	26685
Subjects:	General Issues > Computer Simulation General Issues > Evidence
Date:	2025
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/26685

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