Lehtinen, Aki (2026) Inferential rules for confirmatory robustness. [Preprint]

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Abstract

This paper analyses when, and to what extent, the robustness of
a result yields confirmation. I develop two inferential rules that spec�ify how modellers and experimenters should update their conditional
probabilities when new derivational or experimental information be�comes available. While similar rules apply to derivational and ex�perimental robustness, they are insufficient on their own to generate
empirical confirmation from derivational robustness. That requires
suitable indirect confirmation relations linking model results to em�pirical evidence. I examine several such relations and show how ro�bustness can increase confirmation by demonstrating that both an
empirically validated result and a model prediction depend on the
same components, while certain false auxiliaries are irrelevant. When
empirical confirmation arises from derivational robustness, it does so
by strengthening these indirect links rather than by securing a high
absolute probability for a robust theorem. The resulting account clar�ifies both the scope and limits of robust confirmatory reasoning.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Lehtinen, Aki aki.lehtinen@helsinki.fi 0000-0003-0904-1071
Keywords:	Derivational robustness; Experimental robustness, In�direct confirmation; Genuine confirmation; Logical omniscien
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Models and Idealization
Depositing User:	Aki Lehtinen
Date Deposited:	19 Jan 2026 13:34
Last Modified:	19 Jan 2026 13:34
Item ID:	27953
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Models and Idealization
Date:	2026
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/27953

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