Benétreau-Dupin, Yann (2014) Blurring Out Cosmic Puzzles. In: UNSPECIFIED.
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Abstract
The Doomsday argument and anthropic arguments are illustrations of a paradox. In both cases, a lack of knowledge apparently yields surprising conclusions. Since they are formulated within a Bayesian framework, the paradox constitutes a challenge to Bayesianism. Several attempts, some successful, have been made to avoid these conclusions, but some versions of the paradox cannot be dissolved within the framework of orthodox Bayesianism. I show that adopting an imprecise framework of probabilistic reasoning allows for a more adequate representation of ignorance in Bayesian reasoning, and explains away these puzzles.
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Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED) | ||||||
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Keywords: | ignorance; principle of indifference; imprecise probabilities; Doomsday argument; cosmological constant | ||||||
Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Physics > Cosmology Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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Depositing User: | Dr. Yann Benétreau-Dupin | ||||||
Date Deposited: | 03 Jul 2014 13:44 | ||||||
Last Modified: | 03 Jul 2014 13:44 | ||||||
Item ID: | 10817 | ||||||
Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Physics > Cosmology Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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Date: | June 2014 | ||||||
URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/10817 |
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