Northcott, Robert (2015) Opinion polling and election predictions. Philosophy of Science, 82. pp. 1260-1271.
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Abstract
Election prediction by means of opinion polling is a rare empirical success story for social science. I examine the details of a prominent case, drawing two lessons of more general interest:
1) Methodology over metaphysics. Traditional metaphysical criteria were not a useful guide to whether successful prediction would be possible; instead, the crucial thing was selecting an effective methodology.
2) Which methodology? Success required sophisticated use of case-specific evidence from opinion polling. The pursuit of explanations via general theory or causal mechanisms, by contrast, turned out to be precisely the wrong path – contrary to much recent philosophy of social science.
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Item Type: | Published Article or Volume | ||||||
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Keywords: | opinion polling; elections; prediction; explanation | ||||||
Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Explanation General Issues > Models and Idealization General Issues > Operationalism/Instrumentalism Specific Sciences > Sociology |
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Depositing User: | Dr Robert Northcott | ||||||
Date Deposited: | 29 Nov 2018 15:33 | ||||||
Last Modified: | 29 Nov 2018 15:33 | ||||||
Item ID: | 15388 | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Philosophy of Science | ||||||
Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Explanation General Issues > Models and Idealization General Issues > Operationalism/Instrumentalism Specific Sciences > Sociology |
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Date: | December 2015 | ||||||
Page Range: | pp. 1260-1271 | ||||||
Volume: | 82 | ||||||
URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/15388 |
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