Northcott, Robert (2022) Pandemic modeling, good and bad. [Preprint]

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Abstract

What kind of epidemiological modeling works well? This is determined by the nature of the target: the relevant causal relations are unstable across contexts. I look at two influential examples of modeling from the Covid pandemic. The first is the paper from Imperial College London, which, in March 2020, was influential in persuading the UK government to impose a lockdown. Because it assumes stability, this first example of modeling fails. A different modeling strategy is required, one less ambitious but more effective. This is illustrated by a second paper from Imperial College London, which, in December 2020, first estimated the transmissibility of the Alpha variant.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Northcott, Robert r.northcott@bbk.ac.uk
Additional Information:	published in 'Philosophy of Medicine' 3.1, 1-20
Keywords:	pandemic; modeling; fragility; stability; Ferguson; Covid
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology General Issues > Models and Idealization
Depositing User:	Dr Robert Northcott
Date Deposited:	15 Jun 2022 03:08
Last Modified:	15 Jun 2022 03:08
Item ID:	20738
DOI or Unique Handle:	10.5195/pom.2022.79
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction Specific Sciences > Medicine > Epidemiology General Issues > Models and Idealization
Date:	6 May 2022
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/20738

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• Pandemic modeling, good and bad. (deposited 15 Jun 2022 03:08) [Currently Displayed]
  • Pandemic Modeling, Good and Bad. (deposited 11 Oct 2022 14:54)

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