Douglas, Heather and Magnus, PD (2013) State of the field: Why novel prediction matters. [Preprint]

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Abstract

There is considerable disagreement about the epistemic value of novel predictive success, i.e. when a scientist predicts an unexpected phenomenon, experiments are conducted, and the prediction proves to be accurate. We survey the field on this question, noting both fully articulated views such as weak and strong predictivism, and more nascent views, such as pluralist reasons for the instrumental value of prediction. By examining the various reasons offered for the value of prediction across a range of inferential contexts (including inferences from data to phenomena, from phenomena to theory, and from theory to framework), we can see that neither weak nor strong predictivism captures all of the reasons for valuing prediction available. A third path is presented, Pluralist Instrumental Predictivism; PIP for short.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Douglas, Heather dougl239@msu.edu 0000-0003-1068-8948 Magnus, PD pmagnus@albany.edu 0000-0002-2446-3494
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Theory/Observation
Depositing User:	Prof. Heather Douglas
Date Deposited:	28 Dec 2025 23:03
Last Modified:	28 Dec 2025 23:03
Item ID:	27655
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Theory/Observation
Date:	2013
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/27655

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