Belot, Gordon (2013) Failure of Calibration is Typical. [Preprint]
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Abstract
Schervish (1985b) showed that every forecasting system is noncalibrated for uncountably many data sequences that it might see. This result is strengthened here: from a topological point of view, failure of calibration is typical and calibration rare. Meanwhile, Bayesian forecasters are certain that they are calibrated---this invites worries about the connection between Bayesianism and rationality.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | ||||||
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| Additional Information: | Forthcoming in Statistics and Probability Letters | ||||||
| Keywords: | Forecasting systems; Bayesianism | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Formal Learning Theory Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Depositing User: | Gordon Belot | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 20 Jun 2013 15:36 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 20 Jun 2013 15:36 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 9842 | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Formal Learning Theory Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics |
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| Date: | 19 June 2013 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/9842 |
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