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Anchoring in Deliberations

Hartmann, Stephan and Rafiee Rad, Soroush (2018) Anchoring in Deliberations. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Deliberation is a standard procedure for making decisions in not too large groups. It has the advantage that group members can learn from each other and that, at the end, often a consensus emerges that everybody endorses. Unfortunately, however, implementing a deliberation procedure also has a number of disadvantages due to the cognitive limitations of the individual group members. What is more, the very process of deliberation introduces an additional bias, which we investigate in this article. We demonstrate that even in a group of (boundedly) rational agents the resulting consensus (if there is one) depends on the order in which the group members speak. More specifically, the group member who speaks first has an unproportionally high impact on the final decision, which we interpret as a new instance of the well-known anchoring effect. To show this, we construct and analyze an agent-based model -- inspired by the disagreement debate in social epistemology -- and obtain analytical results for homogeneous groups (i.e., for groups whose members consider each other as epistemic peers) as well as simulation results for inhomogeneous groups.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Hartmann, StephanS.Hartmann@lmu.de0000-0001-8676-2177
Rafiee Rad, Soroushsoroush.r.rad@gmail.com
Additional Information: To appear in Erkenntnis.
Keywords: Anchoring effect, biases, collective decision making, Lehrer-Wagner model
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Cognitive Science
General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Economics
Specific Sciences > Psychology/Psychiatry
General Issues > Science and Society
General Issues > Science Policy
Specific Sciences > Sociology
Depositing User: Stephan Hartmann
Date Deposited: 09 Sep 2018 13:40
Last Modified: 09 Sep 2018 13:40
Item ID: 15015
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Cognitive Science
General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Economics
Specific Sciences > Psychology/Psychiatry
General Issues > Science and Society
General Issues > Science Policy
Specific Sciences > Sociology
Date: 9 September 2018
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/15015

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