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The Best Laid Schemes of Mice and Me

McCutcheon, Randall G. (2018) The Best Laid Schemes of Mice and Me. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Adam Elga has argued that holders of imprecise credences fall prey to missed arbitrages, so that rational credences should be sharp. A decision rule proposed by Rohan Sud, Forward Looking, enables imprecise Bayesians to sidestep missed arbitrages and other ``bad books'' in isolated fixed-evidence binary betting sequences such as those of Elga. We show that Forward Looking imprecise Bayesians are committed to a bad book of bets when faced with a particular
3-bet variable-evidence binary betting sequence.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
McCutcheon, Randall G.cutch17@yahoo.com0000-0002-5305-3662
Keywords: Imprecise Credences; Forward Looking; Arbitrage Argument
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Dr. Randall G. McCutcheon
Date Deposited: 12 Sep 2018 14:23
Last Modified: 12 Sep 2018 14:23
Item ID: 15028
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 12 September 2018
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/15028

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