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How to Predict Future Duration from Present Age

Kierland, Brian and Monton, Bradley (2005) How to Predict Future Duration from Present Age. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Physicist J. Richard Gott has given an argument that, if good, allows one to make accurate predictions for the future longevity of a process, based solely on its present age. We show that there are problems with some of the details of Gott’s argument, but we defend the crucial insight: in many circumstances, the greater the present age of a process, the more likely a longer future duration.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Kierland, Brian
Monton, Bradley
Additional Information: This is the penultimate version of a paper forthcoming in _Philosophical Quarterly_. Please do not cite this version.
Keywords: Copernican principle, delta t arugment, doomsday argument, Jeffreys prior, scale invariance, location invariance, Elliott Sober, Nick Bostrom, Ken Olum, Carleton Caves
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
General Issues > Decision Theory
Depositing User: Bradley Monton
Date Deposited: 27 Apr 2005
Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:13
Item ID: 2279
URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/2279

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