PhilSci Archive

How to Predict Future Duration from Present Age

Kierland, Brian and Monton, Bradley (2005) How to Predict Future Duration from Present Age. [Preprint]

[img] Microsoft Word (.doc)
Download (118Kb)

    Abstract

    Physicist J. Richard Gott has given an argument that, if good, allows one to make accurate predictions for the future longevity of a process, based solely on its present age. We show that there are problems with some of the details of Gott’s argument, but we defend the crucial insight: in many circumstances, the greater the present age of a process, the more likely a longer future duration.


    Export/Citation:EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
    Social Networking:

    Item Type: Preprint
    Additional Information: This is the penultimate version of a paper forthcoming in _Philosophical Quarterly_. Please do not cite this version.
    Keywords: Copernican principle, delta t arugment, doomsday argument, Jeffreys prior, scale invariance, location invariance, Elliott Sober, Nick Bostrom, Ken Olum, Carleton Caves
    Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
    General Issues > Decision Theory
    Depositing User: Bradley Monton
    Date Deposited: 27 Apr 2005
    Last Modified: 07 Oct 2010 11:13
    Item ID: 2279
    URI: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/2279

    Actions (login required)

    View Item

    Document Downloads