Kierland, Brian and Monton, Bradley (2005) How to Predict Future Duration from Present Age. [Preprint]
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Abstract
Physicist J. Richard Gott has given an argument that, if good, allows one to make accurate predictions for the future longevity of a process, based solely on its present age. We show that there are problems with some of the details of Gott’s argument, but we defend the crucial insight: in many circumstances, the greater the present age of a process, the more likely a longer future duration.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | This is the penultimate version of a paper forthcoming in _Philosophical Quarterly_. Please do not cite this version. | |||||||||
| Keywords: | Copernican principle, delta t arugment, doomsday argument, Jeffreys prior, scale invariance, location invariance, Elliott Sober, Nick Bostrom, Ken Olum, Carleton Caves | |||||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics General Issues > Decision Theory |
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| Depositing User: | Bradley Monton | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 27 Apr 2005 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 07 Oct 2010 15:13 | |||||||||
| Item ID: | 2279 | |||||||||
| Subjects: | Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics General Issues > Decision Theory |
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| Date: | April 2005 | |||||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/2279 |
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