North, Jill (2010) An Empirical Approach to Symmetry and Probability. [Preprint]

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Abstract

We often rely on symmetries to infer outcomes’ probabilities, as when we infer that each side of a fair coin is equally likely to come up on a given toss. Why are these inferences successful? I argue against answering this question with an a priori indifference principle. Reasons to reject such a principle are familiar, yet instructive. They point to a new, empirical explanation for the success of our probabilistic predictions. This has implications for indifference reasoning generally. I argue that a priori symmetries need never constrain our probability attributions, even for initial credences.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID North, Jill
Keywords:	Probability; symmetry; indifference.
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Symmetries/Invariances Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics
Depositing User:	Jill North
Date Deposited:	15 Mar 2010
Last Modified:	07 Oct 2010 15:19
Item ID:	5192
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Symmetries/Invariances Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics
Date:	January 2010
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/5192

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