Chen, Eddy Keming (2021) Time's Arrow and Self-Locating Probability. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research.

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Abstract

One of the most difficult problems in the foundations of physics is what gives rise to the arrow of time. Since the fundamental dynamical laws of physics are (essentially) symmetric in time, the explanation for time's arrow must come from elsewhere. A promising explanation introduces a special cosmological initial condition, now called the Past Hypothesis: the universe started in a low-entropy state. Unfortunately, in a universe where there are many copies of us (in the distant ''past'' or the distant ''future''), the Past Hypothesis is not enough; we also need to postulate self-locating (de se) probabilities. However, I show that we can similarly use self-locating probabilities to strengthen its rival--the Fluctuation Hypothesis, leading to in-principle empirical underdetermination and radical epistemological skepticism. The underdetermination is robust in the sense that it is not resolved by the usual appeal to 'empirical coherence' or 'simplicity.' That is a serious problem for the vision of providing a completely scientific explanation of time's arrow.

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Item Type:	Published Article or Volume
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Chen, Eddy Keming eddykemingchen@ucsd.edu 0000-0001-5144-0952
Keywords:	Past Hypothesis, Principle of Indifference, Principal Principle, de se probabilities, time's arrow, entropy, Bayesian epistemology, confirmation, empirical underdetermination, skepticism
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Laws of Nature Specific Sciences > Physics Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics
Depositing User:	Dr. Eddy Keming Chen
Date Deposited:	24 Oct 2021 03:41
Last Modified:	24 Oct 2021 03:41
Item ID:	19736
Journal or Publication Title:	Philosophy and Phenomenological Research
Official URL:	https://doi.org/10.1111/phpr.12834
DOI or Unique Handle:	10.1111/phpr.12834
Subjects:	General Issues > Confirmation/Induction General Issues > Evidence General Issues > Laws of Nature Specific Sciences > Physics Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics
Date:	26 September 2021
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/19736

Available Versions of this Item

• Time's Arrow and De Se Probabilities. (deposited 17 Jan 2020 00:35)
  • Time's Arrow and Self-Locating Probability. (deposited 24 Oct 2021 03:41) [Currently Displayed]

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