Liu, Chong (2024) A new theory of causation based on probability distribution determinism. [Preprint]

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Abstract

The concept of causation is crucial to understanding the relationships between various phenomena, but its nature and criteria for identification are still debated. This paper establishes a new theory of causation with broad explanatory power through a quasi-axiomatic approach, and reviews the value and shortcomings of current mainstream theories of causation. The new theory proposes that the ontological basis of causality can be just if-then functions, and the epistemological discriminant is S(Y|S1(X),Ψ)≠S(Y|S2(X),Ψ), where S(Y) is a state of affairs (expressed as a probability distribution) and Ψ represents all states of affairs that can coexist with both S1(X) and S2(X). The paper distinguishes two related yet different causal contexts, one emphasizes the potential influence in general sense, while the other focuses on attributing responsibility in specific cases. Accordingly, the article clarifies the differences and proper uses of concepts such as “cause”, “effect” and “causal relationship”. The new theory takes probability distribution determinism (PDD) as its basis, which updates traditional determinism by representing states of affairs as probability distributions. This is because on the basis of PDD, a series of nested hierarchical structures similar to the relationship structure between things in the real world can be deduced simply through certain naming strategies. Although some aspects of the new framework may require further analysis, it may provide a fruitful framework for a deeper understanding of causation and shed new light on scientific research methods.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Liu, Chong john.liuchong@gmail.com 0009-0009-8116-1255
Keywords:	Causation, probability distribution, determinism
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Epistemology Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Ontology General Issues > Causation General Issues > Computer Simulation General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism General Issues > Explanation General Issues > Laws of Nature General Issues > Philosophers of Science Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User:	Mr. Chong Liu
Date Deposited:	27 Jan 2024 16:40
Last Modified:	27 Jan 2024 16:40
Item ID:	23015
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Epistemology Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Ontology General Issues > Causation General Issues > Computer Simulation General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism General Issues > Explanation General Issues > Laws of Nature General Issues > Philosophers of Science Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date:	17 January 2024
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/23015

Available Versions of this Item

• A new theory of causation based on probability distribution determinism. (deposited 17 Jan 2024 19:01)
  • A new theory of causation based on probability distribution determinism. (deposited 17 Jan 2024 19:01)
    • A new theory of causation based on probability distribution determinism. (deposited 20 Jan 2024 16:35)
      • A new theory of causation based on probability distribution determinism. (deposited 27 Jan 2024 16:40) [Currently Displayed]

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