Franklin, Alexander (2025) (Some) Weather Probabilities are Ontic and Objective. [Preprint]
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Abstract
Probabilities play an essential role in the prediction and explanation of events and thus feature prominently in well-confirmed scientific theories. However, such probabilities are frequently described as subjective, epistemic, or both. This prompts a well-known puzzle: how could scientific posits that predict and explain human-independent events essentially involve agents or knowers? I argue that the puzzle can be resolved by acknowledging that although such probabilities are non-fundamental, they may still be ontic and objective. To this end I describe dynamical mechanisms that are responsible for the convergence of probability distributions for chaotic systems, and apply an account of emergence developed elsewhere. I suggest that this analysis will generalise and claim that, consequently, a great many of the probabilities in science should be characterised in the same terms. Along the way I'll defend a particular definition of chaos that suits the emergence analysis.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | ||||||
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| Keywords: | probability stochasticity emergence weather objective probability | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism Specific Sciences > Physics Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics General Issues > Reductionism/Holism Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics |
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| Depositing User: | Dr Alexander Franklin | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 11 Mar 2025 13:16 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 11 Mar 2025 13:16 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 24894 | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism Specific Sciences > Physics Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics General Issues > Reductionism/Holism Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics |
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| Date: | 10 March 2025 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/24894 |
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