Hubert, Mario (2021) Reviving Frequentism. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Philosophers now seem to agree that frequentism is an untenable strategy to explain the meaning of probabilities. Nevertheless, I want to revive frequentism, and I will do so by grounding probabilities on typicality in the same way as the thermodynamic arrow of time can be grounded on typicality within statistical mechanics. This account, which I will call typicality frequentism, will evade the major criticisms raised against previous forms of frequentism. In this theory, probabilities arise within a physical theory from statistical behavior of almost all initial conditions. The main advantage of typicality frequentism is that it shows which kinds of probabilities (that also have empirical relevance) can be derived from physics. Although one cannot recover all probability talk in this account, this is rather a virtue than a vice, because it shows which types of probabilities can in fact arise from physics and which types need to be explained in different ways, thereby opening the path for a pluralistic account of probabilities.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Hubert, Mario 0000-0002-1170-6020
Keywords:	probability, frequentism, typicality, physics
Subjects:	General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics
Depositing User:	Dr. Mario Hubert
Date Deposited:	02 Jan 2021 00:15
Last Modified:	02 Jan 2021 00:15
Item ID:	18554
Subjects:	General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics
Date:	2021
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/18554

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