Fernandes, Alison (2024) The Branchpoint Proposal and the Role of Counterfactuals. [Preprint]
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Abstract
I introduce a novel method for evaluating counterfactuals. According to the branchpoint proposal,
counterfactuals are evaluated by ‘rewinding’ the universe to a time at which the antecedent had a
reasonable probability of coming about and considering the probability for the consequent, given the
antecedent. This method avoids surprising dynamics, allows the time of the branchpoint to be
determined by the system’s dynamics (rather than by context) and uses scientific posits to specify the
relevant probabilities. I then show how the branchpoint proposal can be justified by considering an
evidential role for counterfactuals: counterfactuals help us reason about the probabilistic relations that
hold in a hypothetical scenario at which the antecedent is maximally unsettled. A result is that we
should distinguish the use of counterfactuals in contexts of control from their use for reasoning
evidentially. Standard Lewisian accounts run into trouble precisely by expecting a single relation to
play both roles.
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| Item Type: | Preprint | ||||||
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| Keywords: | Counterfactuals, Probability, Forks, Evidence, Temporal Asymmetry, Causation | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Scientific Metaphysics General Issues > Causation General Issues > Decision Theory General Issues > Evidence |
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| Depositing User: | Dr Alison Fernandes | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 02 Dec 2024 13:46 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 02 Dec 2024 13:46 | ||||||
| Item ID: | 24326 | ||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Scientific Metaphysics General Issues > Causation General Issues > Decision Theory General Issues > Evidence |
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| Date: | August 2024 | ||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/24326 |
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