Zollman, Kevin J.S. and Dorst, Kevin (2025) Reflection, Introspection, and Book. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 111 (3). 1136- 1158. ISSN 0031-8205
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Abstract
The much-debated Reflection principle states that a coherent agent's credences must match their estimates for their future credences. Defenders claim that there are Dutch-book arguments in its favor, putting it on the same normative footing as probabilistic coherence. Critics claim that those arguments rely on the implicit, implausible assumption that the agent is introspective: that they are certain what their own credences are. In this paper, we clarify this debate by surveying several different conceptions of the book scenario. We show that the crucial disagreement hinges on whether agents who are not introspective are known to reliably act on their credences: if they are, then coherent Reflection failures are (at best) ephemeral; if they aren't, then Reflection failures can be robust---and perhaps rational and coherent. We argue that the crucial question for future debates is which notion of coherence makes sense for such unreliable agents and sketch a few avenues to explore.
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| Item Type: | Published Article or Volume | |||||||||
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| Keywords: | Probabilistic coherence, Dutch book, Reflection, Introspection | |||||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Decision Theory | |||||||||
| Depositing User: | Dr. Kevin Zollman | |||||||||
| Date Deposited: | 18 Nov 2025 13:48 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 18 Nov 2025 13:48 | |||||||||
| Item ID: | 26413 | |||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Philosophy and Phenomenological Research | |||||||||
| Publisher: | Wiley | |||||||||
| Official URL: | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/p... | |||||||||
| DOI or Unique Handle: | https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fphpr.70060 | |||||||||
| Subjects: | General Issues > Decision Theory | |||||||||
| Date: | 4 December 2025 | |||||||||
| Page Range: | 1136- 1158 | |||||||||
| Volume: | 111 | |||||||||
| Number: | 3 | |||||||||
| ISSN: | 0031-8205 | |||||||||
| URI: | https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/26413 |
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Reflection, Introspection, and Book. (deposited 05 Dec 2024 13:07)
- Reflection, Introspection, and Book. (deposited 18 Nov 2025 13:48) [Currently Displayed]
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