Freeborn, David Peter Wallis and Alikani, Malihe and Sicilia, Anthony (2026) Change My View: How Rhetorical Strategy Modulates Rational Belief Change. In: UNSPECIFIED.
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Abstract
Bayesian convergence theorems suggest that agents who share evidence should eventually agree, yet multi-belief Bayesian models show how shared evidence can rationally polarise agents whose higher-order priors diverge. I argue that effective persuasion under such conditions requires higher-order alignment: convergence on the background assumptions through which evidence is weighted. A formal model links mediating-node alignment to reduced posterior disagreement, and evidence from 3,051 r/ChangeMyView debates supports the predicted pattern: concession and empathy positively predict belief revision, while direct challenge and deflection negatively predict it. The result reframes concession as an epistemic strategy.
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